Climate-informed public health

Predict earlier.
Act sooner.

E-DENGUE is building a user-friendly digital early warning system to help health teams anticipate dengue risk and target prevention in Vietnam's Mekong Delta Region.

E-DENGUE Predict Prepare Protect logo
Current phase · 2026Scale-up, cluster trial and revised forecasting ensemble
About the project

A user-friendly digital prediction tool for dengue prevention.

E-DENGUE is developing and evaluating a digital dengue early warning system designed to help local health services and communities in Vietnam's Mekong Delta Region act proactively before outbreaks escalate.

The Mekong Delta Region (MDR) of Vietnam is vulnerable to climate change, resulting in more frequent and intense mosquito-borne dengue outbreaks. Current dengue control measures are mostly reactive because there is no early warning system tailored to the needs of local health systems. Local health practitioners and communities are therefore not adequately empowered to deploy preventive actions that reduce the impact of an outbreak.

We propose to develop and evaluate E-DENGUE, a digital early warning system based on a prediction model, to assist local health systems and communities affected by dengue to proactively mitigate outbreak impacts in the MDR. The system builds on foundational work with a district-level prediction model in a smaller geographical area, where dengue prevention and control measures are implemented under the guidance and supervision of provincial medical centres. Once developed, E-DENGUE will provide a user-friendly software infrastructure for use at local health centres.

Objective

To reduce dengue incidence by 25% by creating a model-based system to predict dengue outbreaks, enabling proactive outbreak prevention.

Research Questions

  1. What data needs to be collected to inform the models?
  2. What is the optimal model for predicting dengue incidence and outbreaks two months in advance at the district level in the MDR?
  3. How can the E-DENGUE system be integrated into the routine practices of local dengue prevention and control programs in the MDR?
  4. What factors contribute to user acceptance of the E-DENGUE system in routine practice?
  5. What is the effectiveness of E-DENGUE in reducing dengue incidence in high-risk districts in the MDR?
  6. Is E-DENGUE a cost-effective decision-support tool for dengue prevention?

Aims

  1. Build a predictive dengue model that accurately predicts dengue risk at the district level two months in advance.
  2. Develop E-DENGUE — an open-source software system with a user-friendly web-based and mobile-app interface — for local health practitioners to predict dengue incidence and outbreaks at the district level.
  3. Evaluate the effectiveness of E-DENGUE in reducing dengue incidence using a cluster-randomised control trial in the MDR.
  4. Evaluate the cost-effectiveness of E-DENGUE for outbreak prevention in the MDR.

Key Deliverables

E-DENGUE will support local health departments and communities to proactively plan and deploy dengue prevention and control measures in high-risk districts of the MDR through:

  • A district-level dengue prediction model that accurately and reliably predicts dengue outbreaks two months in advance.
  • A web-based and mobile-app interface designed for effective use by preventive medicine practitioners.

Pathway to Practice & Translation

The project connects prediction with routine prevention practice: identifying the data needed, selecting an optimal forecasting model, integrating E-DENGUE into local programs, understanding user acceptance, and testing both effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. At project completion, E-DENGUE is expected to be translatable to other vulnerable populations across South-East Asia and other tropical regions where similar environmental and sociodemographic characteristics prevail.

Project video

Can we stop dengue before it spreads?

See how E-DENGUE is turning dengue forecasting research into an early-warning platform designed for real public-health decisions.

Collaboration

Built across disciplines and borders.

E-DENGUE combines public health, epidemiology, modelling, climate science, economics, social science, software engineering and implementation expertise.

Research Program

One system, four connected themes.

Forecasting only creates value when it connects to usable tools, real interventions and evidence about what works.

01

Predictive Modelling

Develop and validate probabilistic dengue forecasts using spatiotemporal, statistical and semi-mechanistic approaches.

02

E-Dengue Tool Develop

Translate multi-source data and model outputs into a practical web and mobile decision-support experience for local health teams.

03

Effectiveness & Cost-Effectiveness

Evaluate whether forecast-guided prevention reduces dengue burden and whether the approach is cost-effective for health systems.

04

Needs Assessment

Co-design around real user needs, implementation context, capacity and pathways for sustainable integration into surveillance.

Project timeline

Five phases from research to impact.

A concise view of the programme, from launch and model development through implementation, evaluation and translation.

Phase 12023

Launch, model foundations and formal approvals

The international programme launched and established the data, ethics and implementation foundations for all four research themes.

Phase 22024

Needs assessment, model selection and platform design

Technical and user consultations translated research requirements into a selected forecasting approach and an implementable digital product.

Phase 32025

Software completion and pilot intervention

The web and mobile platform moved from development into operational testing, training and forecast-guided field intervention.

Phase 42026

Scale-up, cluster trial and revised forecasting ensemble

The current phase combines large-scale implementation and effectiveness evaluation with a major technical revision of the forecasting system.

Phase 52027

Evaluation, economics and sustainable translation

The final programme phase will consolidate trial results, cost-effectiveness evidence and pathways for sustainable adoption.

Latest activity

Progress on the ground.

View all project activity
Main implementation and effectiveness evaluation

Main implementation and effectiveness evaluation

Current phase: scale-up of E-DENGUE-supported interventions, real-world use of early warnings and rigorous evaluation of effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and implementation.

Field assessment of proactive dengue prevention

Field assessment of proactive dengue prevention

The team assessed how early-warning information could support vector surveillance, targeted prevention and local public-health decision-making in practice.

Tool handover and partnership strengthening

Tool handover and partnership strengthening

Project partners strengthened implementation arrangements, handed over E-DENGUE infrastructure and expanded institutional collaboration for the next phase.